Texas Home Sales Return to Normal
By David S. Jones, Senior Editor, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
April 17, 2012/ Release No. 20
COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (Real Estate Center) – Despite today’s uncertain economic climate, a noted residential analyst sees a “slow upturn” ahead for the Texas housing market.
Dr. Jim Gaines, research economist for the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, is optimistic about the state’s home sales in coming months.
“Home sales in the state rebounded a very modest 0.7 percent in 2011,” he said. “That was a big improvement over the 4.5 percent decline in 2010. A gradual improvement in monthly sales moving toward the long-term norm is expected to continue into 2013.”
Gaines projects Texas home sales to be in the neighborhood of 212,000 this year, an increase of 3 to 3.5 percent more than last year.
“The projected 2012 sales level is consistent with the historical rate of statewide sales per 1,000 households,” said Gaines. “The three-year sales trend that began in 2010 reflects a reversion to the 1997—98 pace.”
In other words, he said, sales are getting back to a “normal and sustainable” level. The residential analyst cautions that the Texas housing market is “somewhat precarious” and even a small factor could derail the housing recovery.
Gaines cited several economic concerns — both in the United States and overseas — that could alter his predictions dramatically. For example, Europe’s unstable financial markets could trigger a U.S. “retrenchment” or outright recession. In this country, the credit squeeze makes mortgages more difficult to obtain.
“Many buyers are postponing purchases because of a lack of confidence in the market,” Gaines wrote in an article published recently in Tierra Grande magazine. “They are concerned that prices may not have bottomed.”
MVP Investments, LLC, dba Mtn. View Properties2100 W. Highway 90, Alpine, TX 79830(432) 837-5518www.mtnviewproperties.com